The only thing you've not considered is that the 500 plus billion dollars that funded the Payroll Protection Program is rolling off. Many small business (like our own) were, essentially a passthrough that prevented us from having to lay off employees even though, in our case, we were not open.

My back of the napkin calculations suggest that without PPP funds, the unemployment rate would be twice to four times its current rate.

There are entire segments of the economy that, because of social distancing and other COVID related factors will not return to normal. This is entirely a demand problem. Once the PPP funds have been spent (ours went in 2 months) people will move to unemployment in droves. Thus, the rate will not continue to decline. In fact, without further government intervention, it will soar.

I'm not discounting the negative impact of deficit spending. I'm merely saying that when demand evaporates over the course of a couple of months in significant sectors of the economy the risk of a catastrophic cascading downward spiral is very real.